July 29, 2020
Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (Part 1 of 4)
Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) June outlook report for the current 2019-20 crop year and the up-coming 2020-21 crop year.
For the 2019-20 crop year, which closes for most crops at the end of July, total carry-out stocks (inventories) are forecast at 13.8 million tonnes (Mt), about 10 percent lower than last year. This is largely due to the decrease in total supply and the increase in the total domestic use, specifically for the grains and oilseeds (G&O). Total exports of all field crops are expected to decrease by about 7 percent compared to last year as lower exports of wheat, corn and oilseeds more than outweigh higher exports of peas and lentils. In general, world grain prices are expected to continue to be pressured downward by abundant supplies of grains at the global level. The economic outlook for world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be strongly tempered by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.
For 2020-21, based on Statistics Canada's June 29 preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas, the areas seeded to durum, barley, oats and lentils in 2020 are expected to increase, compared with 2019, but decrease for wheat ex-durum, canola, soybeans and dry peas. Seeding was complete in early June across all the provinces and growing conditions to-date have been near normal. The total area seeded to field crops in Canada is expected to be marginally lower than it was in 2019-20. However, average yields are forecast to increase so that total crop production increases by 2 percent to 95.2 Mt.
Total exports are forecast to increase largely due to higher exports of wheat ex-durum and corn. Total domestic use is expected to decrease significantly due to lower domestic use of all wheat and oilseeds. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 15 Mt, which is only slightly above the 10-year average. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grains at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar.
f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 and area seeded for 2020-2021 which are STC" to the end of English input
Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition
Crop Years: 2018-2019 to 2020-2021 (forecast)Units (Thousand Tonnes, unless otherwise specified)
|Section||Crop Year||Seeded Area(thousand ha)||Harvested Area(thousand ha)||Yield(t/ha)||Production||Imports||Total Supply||Exports||Total Domestic Use||Carry-out Stocks|
|Grains and Oilseeds||2018-2019||27,815||26,842||3.22||86,533||4,043||105,155||46,881||44,353||13,921|
|Pulse and Special Crops||2018-2019||3,643||3,566||1.88||6,697||292||8,716||6,101||1,312||1,303|
|Total Principal Field Crops||2018-2019||31,458||30,409||3.07||93,230||4,335||113,871||52,982||45,665||15,224|
t/ha: Tonnes per hectare
N/A: Not available
f: forecasts by AAFC
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Calculations compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Crops and Horticulture Division/Market Analysis Group
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