May 22, 2020

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (Part 1 of 4)

Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook report for the current 2019-20 crop year and the up-coming 2020-21 crop year.
For 2019-20, information has been incorporated from Statistics Canada's (STC) May 7 report on Stocks of Principal Field Crops in Canada which indicated that stocks of wheat, barley and oats were up on March 31 compared with the same date in 2019, while stocks of canola, corn for grain, soybeans, dry field peas and lentils were down. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the estimates of on-farm stocks were produced under exceptional circumstances but data related to commercial stocks was not affected. Total carry-out stocks of field crops in Canada are expected to be about 14.2 million tonnes (Mt), almost 7% lower than 2018-19 but similar to the 10 year average. The situation and outlook for world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.
For 2020-21, Statistics Canada's May 7 report on the March Seeding Intentions of Principal Field Crops in Canada indicated that farmers intend to increase the area seeded to wheat, corn for grain and oats in 2020 compared with 2019. However, the area seeded to canola, soybeans, barley, dry peas and lentils are expected to decrease. The actual planting decisions are strongly influenced by crop rotation considerations, current inventories, expected prices and marketing conditions such as ongoing trade issues, as well as weather during seeding and delays in planting due to the ongoing spring harvest of the 2019 crop. However, based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally from 2019-20. In general, average yields are forecast to increase compared to 2019-20 because excessive moisture conditions in some areas reduced yields last year. The production of grains and oilseeds (G&O) and pulses and special crops (P&SC) is forecast to increase modestly so that total field crop production is expected to expand by 2 percent to 95.7 Mt. In general, abundant supplies and factors related to COVID-19 are expected to pressure world grain prices but prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar.
f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 and area seeded for 2020-2021 which are STC

Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition

Crop Years: 2018-2019 to 2020-2021 (forecast)
Units (Thousand Tonnes, unless otherwise specified)
Section Crop Year Seeded Area(thousand ha) Harvested Area(thousand ha) Yield(t/ha) Production Imports Total Supply Exports Total Domestic Use Carry-out Stocks
Grains and Oilseeds 2018-2019  27,815 26,842 3.22 86,533 4,043 105,155 46,881 44,353 13,921
2019-2020f 27,514 26,032 3.31 86,046 2,166 102,133 43,053 45,860 13,220
2020-2021f 27,619 26,317 3.36 88,419 2,062 103,702 45,215 44,097 14,390
Pulse and Special Crops 2018-2019  3,643 3,566 1.88 6,697 292 8,716 6,101 1,312 1,303
2019-2020f 3,880 3,775 1.95 7,363 325 8,991 6,632 1,374 985
2020-2021f 3,780 3,707 1.96 7,265 277 8,527 6,165 1,392 970
Total Principal Field Crops 2018-2019  31,458 30,409 3.07 93,230 4,335 113,871 52,982 45,665 15,224
2019-2020f 31,394 29,807 3.13 93,409 2,492 111,124 49,685 47,234 14,205
2020-2021f 31,399 30,024 3.19 95,685 2,339 112,229 51,380 45,489 15,360
ha: Hectares
t/ha: Tonnes per hectare
N/A: Not available
f: forecasts by AAFC
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Calculations compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Crops and Horticulture Division/Market Analysis Group

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