July 29, 2020

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (Part 1 of 4)

Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
 
This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) June outlook report for the current 2019-20 crop year and the up-coming 2020-21 crop year.
 
For the 2019-20 crop year, which closes for most crops at the end of July, total carry-out stocks (inventories)  are forecast at 13.8 million tonnes (Mt), about 10 percent lower than last year. This is largely due to the decrease in total supply and the increase in the total domestic use, specifically for the grains and oilseeds (G&O). Total exports of all field crops are expected to decrease by about 7 percent compared to last year as lower exports of wheat, corn and oilseeds more than outweigh higher exports of peas and lentils. In general, world grain prices are expected to continue to be pressured downward by abundant supplies of grains at the global level. The economic outlook for world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be strongly tempered by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.
 
For 2020-21, based on Statistics Canada's June 29 preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas, the areas seeded to durum, barley, oats and lentils in 2020 are expected to increase, compared with 2019, but decrease for wheat ex-durum, canola, soybeans and dry peas. Seeding was complete in early June across all the provinces and growing conditions to-date have been near normal. The total area seeded to field crops in Canada is expected to be marginally lower than it was in 2019-20.  However, average yields are forecast to increase so that total crop production increases by 2 percent to 95.2 Mt.
Total exports are forecast to increase largely due to higher exports of wheat ex-durum and corn. Total domestic use is expected to decrease significantly due to lower domestic use of all wheat and oilseeds. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 15 Mt, which is only slightly above the 10-year average. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grains at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar.
 
f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 and area seeded for 2020-2021 which are STC" to the end of English input 

Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition

Crop Years: 2018-2019 to 2020-2021 (forecast)
Units (Thousand Tonnes, unless otherwise specified)
Section Crop Year Seeded Area(thousand ha) Harvested Area(thousand ha) Yield(t/ha) Production Imports Total Supply Exports Total Domestic Use Carry-out Stocks
Grains and Oilseeds 2018-2019  27,815 26,842 3.22 86,533 4,043 105,155 46,881 44,353 13,921
2019-2020f 27,514 26,043 3.30 86,046 2,597 102,564 43,658 45,876 13,030
2020-2021f 27,450 26,153 3.35 87,602 2,482 103,114 44,820 43,991 14,304
Pulse and Special Crops 2018-2019  3,643 3,566 1.88 6,697 292 8,716 6,101 1,312 1,303
2019-2020f 3,880 3,775 1.95 7,363 311 8,977 6,897 1,340 740
2020-2021f 3,948 3,878 1.95 7,574 277 8,591 6,265 1,326 1,000
Total Principal Field Crops 2018-2019  31,458 30,409 3.07 93,230 4,335 113,871 52,982 45,665 15,224
2019-2020f 31,394 29,818 3.13 93,409 2,908 111,541 50,555 47,215 13,770
2020-2021f 31,397 30,031 3.17 95,176 2,759 111,705 51,085 45,317 15,304
ha: Hectares
t/ha: Tonnes per hectare
N/A: Not available
 
f: forecasts by AAFC
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Calculations compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Crops and Horticulture Division/Market Analysis Group
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