September 25, 2020

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (Part 1 of 4)

Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
 
This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada's (AAFC) August outlook report for the 2019-20 crop year, which has ended for all crops, and provides the outlook for the 2020-21 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year started on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year started on September 1 and ends on August 31.
 
For the 2019-20 crop year, the report provides the near-final estimates for all crops, except for corn and soybeans, using information from Statistics Canada's (STC) September 4, 2020 report on stocks of grain and oilseeds as of July 31. Compared to the previous year total crop production increased slightly to 94.3 million tonnes (Mt), although total supply decreased as a result of lower imports. Due to lower supply, higher exports and domestic use, carryout stocks (year-end inventories) for all principal field crops decreased by almost 20% to 12.5 Mt. This significant decrease was due to higher exports and domestic use in Canada.
 
For the 2020-21 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from STC's September 14, 2020 report, which are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from STC's Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from STC's field crop reporting series, and agro-climatic data. The yield estimates for 2020-21 benefited from the favorable weather in September in Western Canada, which enabled an early harvest. In Eastern Canada, the corn and soybean harvest is not expected to be complete until early November. Total field crop production is now estimated at 98.1 Mt, of which 91% are grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 9% are pulses and special crops (P&SC). Due to the major set-back in carry-in stocks, total supply is expected to fall. Total exports and total domestic use are forecast to decrease slightly, due largely to declines related to canola, as well as a pullback in pulse exports. Total carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 13.7 Mt, about 7% below the 10-year average. World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grains at the global level, but the impact on grain prices in Canada will be mitigated by the expected relatively low value of the Canadian dollar. The economic outlook for the world and Canadian grain markets is expected to continue to be impacted by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.
 
f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2019-2020 and area seeded for 2020-2021 which are STC" to the end of English input 

Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition

Crop Years: 2018-2019 to 2020-2021 (forecast)
Units (Thousand Tonnes, unless otherwise specified)
Section Crop Year Seeded Area(thousand ha) Harvested Area(thousand ha) Yield(t/ha) Production Imports Total Supply Exports Total Domestic Use Carry-out Stocks
Grains and Oilseeds 2018-2019  27,815 26,842 3.23 86,785 4,042 105,536 46,869 44,144 14,523
2019-2020f 27,601 26,176 3.32 86,864 3,123 104,511 45,998 46,464 12,049
2020-2021f 27,482       2,112 14,161 46,870 -45,424 12,715
Pulse and Special Crops 2018-2019  3,643 3,566 1.88 6,697 292 8,716 6,101 1,086 1,528
2019-2020f 3,894 3,791 1.97 7,465 326 9,319 7,320 1,199 800
2020-2021f 3,963 269 2.03 545 277 1,622 6,970 -6,683 1,335
Total Principal Field Crops 2018-2019  31,458 30,409 3.07 93,481 4,335 114,252 52,970 45,231 16,051
2019-2020f 31,495 29,967 3.15 94,330 3,449 113,830 53,318 47,663 12,849
2020-2021f 31,446 269 2.03 545 2,389 15,783 53,840 -52,107 14,050
ha: Hectares
t/ha: Tonnes per hectare
N/A: Not available
 
f: forecasts by AAFC
Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Calculations compiled by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Crops and Horticulture Division/Market Analysis Group
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